El Molino High School

Forestville · Sonoma County · Public

Public Sonoma County

Data Year

Compare with peers

Most similar nearby schools

Buena Vista High → Palisades High (continuation) → Marce Becerra Academy → North Bay Met Academy → Loconoma Valley High → Compare all similar →

📋 At a glance

Programs & features

Program details not reported to CRDC

Academic signals

Academic signals not yet ingested for this school

Composed from federal CRDC offerings, EDFacts ACGR, and other public data. Full breakdowns below.

🎓 Where grads go

UC admits by campus · Class of 2021

UCSD

3 admitted

UCSB

4 admitted

UCD

9 admitted

3 enrolled

Source: University of California Office of the President, Admissions by Source School. Full campus-by-campus breakdown below.

💡

How El Molino High School compares for families

What families should know about El Molino High School.

▸ vs Similar SchoolsThe closest comparables nearby: Buena Vista High, Palisades High (continuation), Marce Becerra Academy and 2 more. See the sidebar to compare side-by-side.

For Parents

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Enrollment trend & projection

Total enrollment (9–12)

12 (2018) → 7 (2020)

-41.7%

Grade 12 (graduating class)

1 (2018) → 2 (2020)

+100.0%

If this trend holds (-23.6%/yr, Total enrollment)

At per-pupil funding of $ / student:

Horizon	Projected Total enrollment	Change	Funding impact / yr
1 yr (2021)	~5	-2	$0
3 yr (2023)	~3	-4	$0
5 yr (2025)	~2	-5	$0

Straight-line extrapolation of the recent annual rate — a what-if, not a forecast of intent. Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423/ADA). Edit the figure to match your school.

El Molino High School — Enrollment & Outcomes Snapshot

Public · Forestville · vs. 10 most similar nearby schools

▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, El Molino High School is admitting at roughly +13 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.936) alone would predict (43% actual vs. 30% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
▸Senior-class enrollment is up 100% (1→2 from 2018 to 2020), outpacing the peer-group median of -11%.
▸At its recent rate (-23.6%/yr), enrollment projects to ~3 by 2023 — about 4 fewer students than today.

Enrollment projection

7 students (2020)

→

~3 projected (2023)

at -23.6%/yr

That's about 4 fewer students. At per-student funding of $ per student, that's roughly $0 in annual state funding at risk.

Default = California's LCFF base grant for grades 9–12 ($12,423 per ADA) — adjust to your district's actual per-pupil figure. Projection extrapolates the recent annual rate — not a forecast of intent.

Your school vs. its 10 most similar nearby schools

School	Type	Size	UC Reach	Enroll. trend
El Molino High School	Public	7	—	+100%
Peer-group median			—	-11%
Buena Vista High	Public	6	—	+100%
Palisades High (continuation)	Public	6	—	+50%
Marce Becerra Academy	Public	21	—	+36%
North Bay Met Academy	Public	28	—	-76%
Loconoma Valley High	Public	14	—	-20%
Windsor Oaks Academy	Public	38	—	-24%
Carpe Diem High (continuation)	Public	19	—	-50%
Johanna Echols-Hansen High (continuation)	Public	20	—	+7%
Laguna High	Public	61	—	-2%
Valley Oaks High (alternative)	Public	30	—	-61%

UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class (can exceed 100% when students are admitted to multiple campuses). Enrollment trend = first-to-latest grade-12 change on file. Similar schools matched on proximity, size, type. Methodology →

University of California outcomes · Class of 2021

UC Reach ⓘ

N/A

(class size est.)

UC Application Reach ⓘ

N/A

59 applications

UC Admit Rate ⓘ

27.1%

16 / 59 applications

In context: CA median 26.9% · Top 10% statewide ≥ 41.0% · higher than 51% of CA HS.

UC Yield Rate ⓘ

18.8%

3 enrolled of 16 admitted

Yield vs. Enrollment Reach: Yield answers "of UC admits, what % chose UC?" — denominator is just the admits. A small admitted cohort can post a low yield even when the school sends a healthy share of its class to UC.

UC Enrollment Reach ⓘ

N/A

3 enrollees / None seniors

Enrollment Reach vs. Yield: Reach answers "of the whole senior class, what % ended up at UC?" — denominator is everyone. High Yield with low Enrollment Reach is common at elite privates: most admits matriculate, but the school sends most of its class to non-UC selective colleges.

UC 6-Yr Grad Rate ⓘ

95%

80% finished in 4 yrs · N=20 entered 2006

In context: CA median 85.1% · +9.9 pp above.

Selective UC Reach (UCSD, UCSB, UCI, UCD) ⓘ

N/A

Elite UC Reach (UCB + UCLA) ⓘ

N/A

Senior Class Size ⓘ

N/A

Run CDE download to enable Reach %

Total School Enrollment ⓘ

N/A

All grades · CDE Census Day

Avg. Applicant GPA · top-6 UCs ⓘ

3.89

Avg. Admitted GPA · top-6 UCs ⓘ

4.04

UC funnel — which kids are getting in at what GPA

Combining the school's applicant pool GPA, admit pool GPA, actual admit rate, and statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, we can read which GPA tiers tend to get in — and which don't.

🎯 Who's actually getting into UC from El Molino High School

Campus	4.00+ GPA	3.70–3.99 GPA	3.30–3.69 GPA	< 3.30 GPA
UC San Diego	Strong shot	Real shot	Long odds	Filtered out
UC Santa Barbara	Strong shot	Real shot	Long odds	Filtered out
UC Davis	Strong shot	Strong shot	Real shot	Long odds

Strong shot = ≥30% statewide admit rate at this band · Real shot = 10–29% · Moderate = 5–9% · Long odds = 1–4% · Filtered out = under 1%. Tiers map this school's likely outcomes by GPA tier using statewide CA admit rates from UCOP 2021.

The numbers behind it

Campus	Applicant GPA	Admit GPA	Lift ⓘ	Admit rate	vs peer schools @ same GPA ⓘ
UC San Diego (2020)	4.08	4.18	+0.10	50.0%	Peers +0.20 · wider
UC Santa Barbara (2019)	3.88	4.25	+0.37	27.8%	Peers +0.31 · steeper
UC Davis	3.84	4.04	+0.19	69.2%	Peers +0.29 · wider

📊 Statewide CA admit rates by individual GPA band, 2021 (for reference)

GPA band	UCB	UCLA	UCSD	UCSB	UCI	UCD
4.00+	22.2%	18.3%	59.0%	54.0%	46.3%	74.4%
3.70–3.99	5.2%	1.9%	16.7%	10.0%	22.9%	37.9%
3.30–3.69	1.9%	0.9%	3.0%	2.6%	9.8%	19.0%
3.00–3.29	0.6%	0.4%	0.6%	0.8%	0.7%	8.2%
< 3.00	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.2%	2.2%

How we infer the tier labels: Each tier comes from the statewide CA admit rate at that GPA band at that UC. The "vs peers" column compares this school's lift (admit GPA − applicant GPA) to the average lift at ~100–300 other CA schools with similar applicant pool GPA. What this isn't: a guarantee. UC comprehensive review weighs essays, course rigor, demographics, and context-of-opportunity beyond GPA. A 3.9 with strong context can land an admit; a 4.0 with weak essays can be denied. Use as a baseline expectation, not a verdict. Per-campus year is shown when it differs from the headline year (UCOP doesn't always publish admit-GPA for every campus every year).

Where El Molino High School sits vs. all California schools ⓘ

Overall, this school admits its UC applicants 13.4 points above what their GPAs predict (43.2% actual vs. 29.8% expected).

UC Outcomes Trend — 2018–2021

UC Admit Rate %

UC Reach % (where available)

UC Admits (count, right axis)

Class size from CDE grade 12 enrollment. Campus-level data — applicant/admit totals may count a student at multiple campuses more than once.

Campus Breakdown — 2021

Campus	Applicants	Admits	Enrollees	Admit Rate	UC Reach	Yield	Avg GPA (App)	Avg GPA (Adm)
UC Berkeley → Elite	11	—^†	—^†	—^†	—^†	—	3.76	—^†
UCLA → Elite	6	—^†	—^†	—^†	—^†	—	4.03	—^†
UC San Diego → Selective	9	3	—^†	33.3%	—	—	4.06	—^†
UC Santa Barbara → Selective	15	4	—^†	26.7%	—	—	3.94	—^†
UC Irvine → Selective	5	—^†	—^†	—^†	—^†	—	3.68	—^†
UC Davis →	13	9	3	69.2%	—	33.3%	3.84	4.04

† = UCOP-suppressed (count below 3 students, hidden for privacy — actual value is 0, 1, or 2, not necessarily zero). Campus-level totals may count one student admitted to multiple UC campuses more than once; Admit Volume metrics are not the same as UC Reach, which requires unique-student counts. See methodology →

What This Means

Note: admit counts used here are campus-level totals. A student admitted to both UCLA and UCSD is counted twice. When UCOP unique-student data becomes available it will be loaded automatically and the labels will update.

Senior class size is estimated from CDE grade 12 enrollment data. Reach percentages should be interpreted as approximate.

Compare with other schools → See Sonoma County rankings →

For School Admins

The full Reach Report for El Molino High School

A board- and LCAP-ready intelligence brief: your enrollment retention and college outcomes, benchmarked against your closest competitors, with a 5-year forecast, concrete steps to act on, and the rigor + outcomes story you can share with your families. Built from primary public data — prepared for you, not auto-generated.

✓Your 5-year enrollment forecast (currently -23.6%/yr) with the revenue at stake
✓Student-retention benchmarking vs your county median — and the LCAP evidence to back your goals

See a sample report →