Aspire Lionel Wilson College Prep

• ▸On UC Reach Score, Aspire Lionel Wilson College Prep sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 11): 30 vs. a peer median of 24.
• ▸Aspire Lionel Wilson College Prep's UC Reach Score has declined meaningfully from a peak of 50 in 2020 to 30 in 2025 — a 20-point drop that warrants attention. Multi-year UC Reach declines of this size often signal something specific (leadership change, comp-program shift, demographic move) rather than year-to-year noise. This is the kind of trajectory an Enrollment Trend Audit unpacks.
• ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Aspire Lionel Wilson College Prep is admitting at roughly +16 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.927) alone would predict (39% actual vs. 24% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
• ▸Senior-class enrollment is up 8% (48→52 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of +1%.
• ▸At its recent rate (-4.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~348 by 2029 — about 47 fewer students than today.

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UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Reach — by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology

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