Canyon High School

• ▸On UC Reach Score, Canyon High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 11): 29 vs. a peer median of 24.
• ▸Canyon High School's UC Reach Score has declined meaningfully from a peak of 40 in 2023 to 29 in 2025 — a 12-point drop that warrants attention. Multi-year UC Reach declines of this size often signal something specific (leadership change, comp-program shift, demographic move) rather than year-to-year noise. This is the kind of trajectory an Enrollment Trend Audit unpacks.
• ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Canyon High School is admitting at roughly -5 percentage points below what its average applicant GPA (3.988) alone would predict (16% actual vs. 21% expected). That's worth understanding — it can reflect grade inflation that UC sees through, weaker holistic-review materials at the margin, or applicants concentrating at more selective campuses than typical. Not a verdict; a signal.
• ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 1% (572→566 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -8%.
• ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Orange County's senior population shrank 7% over the same window — Canyon High School only shrank 1%. So Canyon High School picked up about 6 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
• ▸At its recent rate (-0.1%/yr), enrollment projects to ~2238 by 2029 — about 3 fewer students than today.

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UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Reach — by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology

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