Sage Creek High School

• ▸On UC Reach Score, Sage Creek High School sits near the top of its similar-school group (ranked #2 of 8): 40 vs. a peer median of 16.
• ▸Sage Creek High School's UC Reach Score has declined meaningfully from a peak of 59 in 2020 to 40 in 2025 — a 19-point drop that warrants attention. Multi-year UC Reach declines of this size often signal something specific (leadership change, comp-program shift, demographic move) rather than year-to-year noise. This is the kind of trajectory an Enrollment Trend Audit unpacks.
• ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 2% (318→312 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -11%.
• ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. San Diego County's senior population shrank 8% over the same window — Sage Creek High School only shrank 2%. So Sage Creek High School picked up about 6 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
• ▸At its recent rate (-0.2%/yr), enrollment projects to ~1228 by 2029 — about 8 fewer students than today.

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UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Reach — by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology

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