Vista Murrieta High School

• ▸On UC Reach Score, Vista Murrieta High School sits in the middle of its similar-school group (ranked #4 of 11): 18 vs. a peer median of 14.
• ▸Its UC Reach Score has risen 4 points since 2018.
• ▸Across the top-6 UC campuses, Vista Murrieta High School is admitting at roughly +6 percentage points above what its average applicant GPA (3.867) alone would predict (26% actual vs. 20% expected). That's a meaningful signal — it can reflect UC's track record with this school's graduates, students presenting strongly in UC's holistic review (essays, EC's, context), or institutional familiarity helping at the margin. The data can't distinguish which, but the pattern itself is real and worth understanding.
• ▸Senior-class enrollment is down 0% (824→820 from 2018 to 2026), outpacing the peer-group median of -9%.
• ▸In business terms, this is market-share growth during a market contraction. Riverside County's senior population shrank 3% over the same window — Vista Murrieta High School only shrank 0%. So Vista Murrieta High School picked up about 2 percentage points of relative share — families chose it over the alternatives even as the overall pool got smaller. That's overperforming the market in a shrinking market.
• ▸At its recent rate (-0.4%/yr), enrollment projects to ~3338 by 2029 — about 37 fewer students than today.

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UC Reach = top-6 UC admits ÷ senior class. Sources: UCOP Admissions by Source School, CDE enrollment, IRS Form 990, NCES F-33. Reach — by Test Prep Gurus · Methodology

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