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Odds at University of California-Merced

Put in your child's GPA and score — we'll show where they land here. Free, and nothing to sign up for.

Most families report the weighted one — it's the higher number, with honors and AP credit in it.

This reads the numbers — admit rate, scores, GPA. The real decision also weighs essays, recommendations, activities, and course rigor.

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Live odds from each college's own published admissions data.

Parent/student verdict

Accessible

Accessible for most applicants. Affordable — net price averages ~$11,983/yr among aid recipients.

Best for

  • Students drawn to Engineering or Psychology (the two biggest majors)
  • Research-curious students (R2 — active research output)

The reality

  • You'd be near the bottom of their admitted class if: unweighted GPA below 3.37 (test bands are the school's own; the 3.37 line is our estimate, not a published figure)
  • Out-of-state tuition is 3.2× the in-state rate

Verdict is composed from this college's structured data (admit rate, SAT bands, net price with aid and at full price, Carnegie classification, scholarship grids) using transparent rule thresholds — not a chat-bot's opinion.

What are your child's odds here?

Enter their numbers once — this and every college page shows their verdict, and the UC campus cards on California school pages light up with it too. Free, no email.

Weighted is the higher GPA, with honors/AP credit in it — pick whichever your school reports. PSAT scores work in the SAT box.

Institutional snapshot

What kind of college is this?

Carnegie classification
R2: Doctoral - High Research Activity
Undergraduates
8,372
5,000 - 9,999 including graduate students
In-state tuitionThe published full price before any aid. Families who don't qualify for need-based aid at a given college pay this, minus any merit scholarships — whether you qualify depends on the college's price and policies, not on any fixed income line.
$15,623
sticker, before aid
Out-of-state tuition
$49,823
+$34,200 vs in-state
Admit rateThe share of applicants a college accepts. Useful context, but your student's odds depend on their own grades and scores, not the average.
94.7%
Accepts the majority
Test policyScores aren't considered at all, even if sent — the UCs are the big example. Grades and course rigor carry the weight.
Test-blind
2023
10-yr earningsMedian yearly pay of former students ten years after they STARTED here — not ten years after graduating — all majors combined. The broadest single outcome number a college reports.
$64,368
median, after entry

Source: admit rate is UC's Fall 2026 preliminary release (see banner above); federal IPEDS Admissions 2023 for scores; federal College Scorecard (20260606 vintage) for earnings + outcomes. SAT/ACT bands are the 25th–75th percentile of enrolled submitters.

High-school GPA

3.57 avg unweightedGPA on the plain 4.0 scale, no honors/AP bonus. When a college publishes an "average admitted GPA of 3.9," it's often this scale — don't compare it to a weighted 4.3. GPA, enrolled first-years

unweighted 4.0 scale. UC Merced Common Data Set 2024-2025 (C12) ↗

As published by the college in its Common Data Set / admissions data (2024-25) — independently verified 2026-07-23 (source linked above). GPA basis (weighted vs. unweighted vs. 4.0-scale) varies by college and is labeled above.

Fall 2026 — just released by UC (preliminary)

49,426 applied · 46,812 admitted · 94.7% admit rate · admitted GPA middle 50%The middle half landed in this range — a quarter are below the low end and a quarter above the high end. Above the top number is a genuine strength; below the bottom isn't automatic rejection.: 3.57–4.16 · 87.9% of admits are California residents. First-year offers as of June 2026, per UC's own release ↗ — fresher than the federal figures below. Full analysis: UC's Fall 2026 numbers →

Admit rate by discipline — Fall 2025

The headline admit rate hides a wide spread by program.

University of California-Merced's own systemwide data, by broad discipline. Campus overall: 94%. UC admits to the campus, not the major, at most programs — but the spread below is the real selectivity of each applicant pool, and capped programs (computer science, engineering, nursing) do gate by major.

Discipline Applicants Admitted Admit rate
Fall 2025
Admit GPA (mid-50%)The middle half landed in this range — a quarter are below the low end and a quarter above the high end. Above the top number is a genuine strength; below the bottom isn't automatic rejection.
Arts & Humanities 1,625 1,476 91% 3.50–4.08
Business 3,674 3,382 92% 3.45–4.06
Other/Interdisciplinary 3,176 2,909 92% 3.48–4.11
Physical Sciences/Math 3,227 3,008 93% 3.66–4.20
Social Sciences 8,622 8,049 93% 3.47–4.08
Public Health 2,452 2,313 94% 3.45–4.08
Life Sciences 10,012 9,646 96% 3.62–4.18
Engineering 11,565 11,206 97% 3.69–4.21

By specific major — Fall 2025

Major Applicants Admitted Admit rate
Fall 2025
Admit GPA (mid-50%)The middle half landed in this range — a quarter are below the low end and a quarter above the high end. Above the top number is a genuine strength; below the bottom isn't automatic rejection. Earlier year
for comparison
Biological Sciences Life Sciences 6,776 6,556 97% 3.65–4.19 Fall 2021: 91%
Undeclared Undeclared 5,013 4,576 91% 3.40–4.02 Fall 2021: 81%
Management And Business Economics Business 3,419 3,149 92% 3.45–4.04 Fall 2021: 84%
Psychology Social Sciences 3,400 3,210 94% 3.44–4.08 Fall 2021: 87%
Psychology, General Social Sciences 3,400 3,210 94% 3.44–4.08 Fall 2021: 87%
Psychology, Other Social Sciences 3,400 3,210 94% 3.44–4.08 Fall 2021: 87%
Public Health Public Health 2,452 2,313 94% 3.45–4.08 Fall 2021: 86%
Mechanical Engineering Engineering 2,311 2,240 97% 3.63–4.18 Fall 2021: 86%
Political Science Social Sciences 1,786 1,708 96% 3.57–4.15 Fall 2021: 86%
Economics Social Sciences 1,669 1,551 93% 3.55–4.13 Fall 2021: 78%
Applied Mathematics Physical Sciences/Math 1,543 1,414 92% 3.64–4.18 Fall 2021: 85%
Sociology Social Sciences 1,511 1,345 89% 3.37–4.00 Fall 2021: 84%
Biochemistry Life Sciences 1,295 1,251 97% 3.63–4.20
Biochemistry, Biophysics And Molecular Biology Life Sciences 1,295 1,251 97% 3.63–4.20
Civil Engineering Engineering 1,294 1,258 97% 3.57–4.15 Fall 2021: 91%
Communication And Media Other/Interdisciplinary 1,259 1,134 90% 3.39–4.00
Data Science And Analytics Other/Interdisciplinary 1,120 1,011 90% 3.45–4.10 Fall 2024: 97%
Aerospace Engineering Engineering 1,110 1,075 97% 3.65–4.19
Bioengineering Engineering 1,048 1,019 97% 3.75–4.23 Fall 2021: 92%
Neuroscience Life Sciences 983 942 96% 3.64–4.20
Environmental Systems Science Physical Sciences/Math 523 494 94% 3.60–4.14 Fall 2021: 90%
Physics Physical Sciences/Math 495 468 95% 3.73–4.23 Fall 2021: 90%
Physics, Applied Physical Sciences/Math 495 468 95% 3.73–4.23 Fall 2021: 90%
Physics, General Physical Sciences/Math 495 468 95% 3.73–4.23 Fall 2021: 90%
Physics, General - Secondary Education Physical Sciences/Math 495 468 95% 3.73–4.23 Fall 2021: 90%
Data Science And Computing Other/Interdisciplinary 410 388 95% 3.69–4.20 Fall 2024: 95%
Cognitive Science Other/Interdisciplinary 369 360 98% 3.70–4.20 Fall 2021: 89%
History Arts & Humanities 359 326 91% 3.54–4.10 Fall 2021: 84%
Chemical Engineering Engineering 354 339 96% 3.86–4.25 Fall 2024: 93%
Literatures In English Arts & Humanities 333 311 93% 3.50–4.13 Fall 2023: 89%
Environmental Engineering Engineering 322 311 97% 3.72–4.16 Fall 2021: 91%
Philosophy Arts & Humanities 172 152 88% 3.54–4.11 Fall 2021: 73%
Biochemical And Biomolecular Engineering Engineering 133 132 99% 3.87–4.26

Majors are shown as UC's systemwide data reports them; programs too small to clear UC's reporting floor don't appear. Admit rates by major reflect who applies as much as who gets in — at most UC programs, students are admitted to the campus, not the major.

Source: University of California Information Center ↗, first-year applicants by broad discipline (data back to Fall 2012). GPA is UC's capped weighted GPAUC's own GPA recalculation: extra points for honors/AP/IB classes, but capped at 8 semesters of bonus. That cap is why UC admitted-GPA bands cluster between 4.0 and 4.3 — a 4.28 here is a stronger number than it looks next to an uncapped 4.6 from a high school transcript.. UC's own guidance: use this as a general guide to selectivity, not a predictor of any one student's chances. Small programs are suppressed by UC.

Outcomes & cost

What graduates actually earn, finish, and owe.

Federal College Scorecard data. Earnings are median annual income measured years after entering. Debt is for federal-aid borrowers only (cash-pay students aren't counted).

Earnings, 6 yrs after entry
$48,475
Earnings, 10 yrs after entryMedian yearly pay of former students ten years after they STARTED here — not ten years after graduating — all majors combined. The broadest single outcome number a college reports.
$64,368
Graduate within 6 yrsThe share of students who start here and finish a bachelor's within six years — the standard federal measure, and the one College Scorecard publishes. It is not a four-year rate. Read it as the odds of finishing at all: nationally about a third of students who start never do, and an unfinished degree is the most expensive outcome in this decision.
69%
Median debt (completers)The federal-loan balance of the typical graduating borrower. Families who pay cash aren't counted, so read it as "among those who borrowed."
$16,144

The real cost

What University of California-Merced actually costs

If you qualify for need aidGrant money based on your family's finances (via FAFSA and the college's own forms), not your student's stats.
$11,983/yr
average among aid-receiving families, all incomes — your number depends on your finances
If you don't
$39,665/yr
the full published price for in-state students — out-of-state runs higher

Which side your family lands on isn't set by any national income line — it's set by University of California-Merced's own aid decision: the gap between its price and your family's finances.

University of California-Merced's own published aid policy · 2026-27

Tuition-free under $100,000

Who qualifies: CA residents; UC Blue and Gold, systemwide tuition only.

Most California families that earn up to $100,000 receive enough grant and scholarship funds to cover their UC tuition.

Income thresholds assume typical assets. Policy independently verified against the college's financial-aid pages ↗.

Get your family's number — University of California-Merced's Net Price Calculator ↗ 10–15 minutes; have a tax return handy. It's still an estimate — but it's this college's own, built from your family's numbers, not anyone's average.
Start your Family Decision Report →

Your odds + estimated cost across your whole college list, side by side.

The payoffTen years of typical graduate pay minus four years of cost — how many dollars ahead a typical graduate runs by year ten. Check both the full-price and with-aid versions to see which applies to you; median pay reflects who a college admits and what they study as much as the college itself., both ways

+$485K ahead at full price +$596K with aid
Full price, no aidThe all-in yearly price — tuition, housing, food, books, fees — before any aid. This is the real "full price," not just the tuition line. (4 yrs, in-state)
$158,660
~$39,665/yr all-in (out-of-state runs higher)
Aid recipients pay (4 yrs)
$47,932
$11,983/yr average
10-yr earnings total
$643,680
$64,368/yr median, 10 yrs out
Years to recoup the cost
2.5 yrs
at full price (0.7 with aid), at the median earnings rate

Source: College Scorecard (average net price among Title IV first-time, full-time undergraduates who received aid) and each college's published cost of attendance. We don't show the federal net-price-by-income brackets: their categories were fixed in 2008 and never adjusted, and none of the averages is your family's own number — the full story. Payoff = (10-yr median earnings × 10) − (4 years of cost), in dollars — how far ahead a typical graduate runs by year ten; medians travel with the students a college admits and the majors they choose as much as with the college itself. Full price is the published cost of attendance, largely in-state for publics; earnings are 10 years after enrollment, all majors combined.

What students study here

Most popular majors at University of California-Merced

Top 5 fields of study by bachelor's degrees awarded (most recent IPEDS Completions). Use this to see what University of California-Merced actually graduates — not just what it markets.

1. Engineering
442 degrees · 29.4%
Engineering majors land high-paying technical roles. Top-earning sub-disciplines: petroleum, chemical, computer engineering.
2. Psychology
338 degrees · 22.5%
Most undergrad psych grads go into non-clinical roles. Clinical/counseling psych requires a master's or doctoral.
3. Biological & Biomedical Sciences
307 degrees · 20.4%
Many bio majors → med school / grad school. Direct-employment bio roles are lower-paid than that pipeline.
4. Social Sciences
233 degrees · 15.5%
Economics + poli sci sub-disciplines pay much more than sociology + anthropology.
5. Business, Management, & Marketing
182 degrees · 12.1%
Broad set of corporate roles. Finance + consulting pay top, accounting + HR pay middle, sales spread is wide.

What those majors earn here

Median earnings 4 years after entry, by major — University of California-Merced's own graduates, not national averages.

Major (CIP) Credential Cohort 1-yr earnings 4-yr earnings
Computer Engineering. Bachelor's Degree 219 $58,835 $102,575
Mechanical Engineering. Bachelor's Degree 184 $67,096 $95,040
Biomedical/Medical Engineering. Bachelor's Degree 37 $57,223 $88,795
Environmental/Environmental Health Engineering. Bachelor's Degree 22 $47,028 $83,007
Applied Mathematics. Bachelor's Degree 36 $39,138 $82,156
Business Administration, Management and Operations. Bachelor's Degree 188 $46,378 $68,277
Economics. Bachelor's Degree 24 $51,212 $67,692
Political Science and Government. Bachelor's Degree 116 $29,153 $62,815
Biology, General. Bachelor's Degree 316 $36,140 $59,249
English Language and Literature, General. Bachelor's Degree 31 $29,152 $58,623

Sources: IPEDS Completions (C2023_a; bachelor's-level first majors, 2-digit CIP family — share is of the top 5 only) · College Scorecard program-level outcomes (PP-FOS). Full college-vs-major comparison: /college-outcomes →

Alternatives to University of California-Merced

Matched not just by selectivity, but by strategic goal — what a family actually decides on.

Better merit-aid options
These similar-selectivity schools publish merit scholarships your family can plan around — your kid’s stats could unlock real scholarship dollars.
University of Alabama at Birmingham
AL · Public
17 stats-based + 2 competitive scholarships
University of Mississippi
MS · Public
14 stats-based + 1 competitive scholarships
University of Kentucky
KY · Public
8 stats-based + 5 competitive scholarships
Lower full price
Similar selectivity, but a meaningfully lower full sticker price — the comparison that matters most for families who won't qualify for much need-based aid.
Indiana University-Kokomo
IN · Public
$11,837/yr full price (in-state) · $27,828 less before aid for IN residents
Gordon State College
GA · Public
$14,771/yr full price (in-state) · $24,894 less before aid for GA residents
CUNY Medgar Evers College
NY · Public
$14,771/yr full price (in-state) · $24,894 less before aid for NY residents

Or compare any college side-by-side

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Feeder high schools

Which high schools send graduates to University of California-Merced?

Enrolled — from the schools' matriculation lists

15 high schools publish a numbered matriculation list — where their graduates actually enrolled, counted, in the school's own School Profile — and name University of California-Merced on it. Between them they printed 31 enrolled graduates. Ranked by graduates per class year enrolling at University of California-Merced, from each school's own published list: the number that school printed, divided by the class years its list covers. The published total and the school's own years label are shown beside every school, so a one-year list and a five-year list can sit on the same page. A list whose class years we cannot read is not divided by a guess — it is listed below with its total instead.

High school · years its list covers Enrolled per class year
Harvard-Westlake School · BY THE CLASSES OF 2021-2025 · counted column: CLASS OF '25 2.0 · 2 over 1 class year
Saint Joseph-Notre Dame High School · Class of 2026 2.0 · 2 over 1 class year
Menlo School · Classes of 2023-2025 As published 1.7 · 5 over 3 class years
Loyola High School · 2020-24 1.2 · 6 over 5 class years
Saint Francis Catholic High School · Class of 2025 1.0 · 1 over 1 class year
The International School of San Francisco · Class of 2026 1.0 · 1 over 1 class year
Western Reserve Academy · Class of 2026 1.0 · 1 over 1 class year
York School · Classes of 2021-2026 0.7 · 4 over 6 class years
Crossroads School · classes of 2023-25 As published 0.7 · 2 over 3 class years
San Francisco University High School · 2021-2025 0.4 · 2 over 5 class years
and 5 more
Harker School · Classes of 2023, 2024 & 2025 0.3 · 1 over 3 class years
Marin Academy · CLASSES OF 2023–2025 0.3 · 1 over 3 class years
Cate School · 2019-2023 As published 0.2 · 1 over 5 class years
Francis Parker School · 2022-2025 0.2 · 1 over 4 class years
Polytechnic School · Class of 2022-2026 0.2 · 1 over 5 class years

Admitted — from the schools' acceptance lists

4 high schools publish a numbered list of college acceptances — where their graduates were admitted, not where they enrolled — and name University of California-Merced on it. Between them they printed 69 admissions. Ranked by admissions per class year to University of California-Merced, from each school's own published acceptances list: the number that school printed, divided by the class years its list covers. Admits are counted at each college a student was admitted to, the same way the UC Reach Score counts a student admitted to three UC campuses three times — so this is a count of admissions, not of students. The published total and the school's own years label are shown beside every school, and a list whose class years we cannot read is listed below with its total rather than divided by a guess.

High school · years its list covers Admitted per class year
Archbishop Mitty High School · Class of 2025 35.0 · 35 over 1 class year
Lycée Français de San Francisco · Classes 2022, 2023, 2024 10.3 · 31 over 3 class years
Staten Island Academy · College Acceptances 2026 2.0 · 2 over 1 class year
National Cathedral School · 2023-2025 0.3 · 1 over 3 class years

All 19 feeder schools, ranked →

Counted from each school's own published document, linked on that school's page. A high school that is not here does not publish a numbered list we could read — that is all absence means, and it says nothing about its graduates. Where a school publishes both, the two lists are shown separately: an acceptances list is not a list of enrollments, and the two are never added together.

Related reading

The data Newsom asked for already exists — school by school

UC testing review · August 25, 2026

Nursing at NYU is harder to get into than Brown

College admissions · August 21, 2026

All stories from the data →

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At a glance

JSON · Using this page with an AI assistant

University of California-Merced is a public four-year college in CA. It admitted 95% of applicants (67,891 applied, 2023). Test policy: Test-blind.

Average enrolled GPA 3.57 (unweighted, 2024-25, as published by the college).

Cost: about $11,983 a year on average with aid, $39,665 a year at full price for in-state students.

Median earnings ten years after entry: $64,368 a year. Payoff, meaning ten years of that pay minus four years of cost: $595,748 ahead with aid, $485,020 ahead at full price.

Highest median earnings four years after the degree, by program: Computer Engineering ($102,575); Mechanical Engineering ($95,040); Biomedical/Medical Engineering ($88,795).

Admit rate by major, Fall 2025 (the UC admits to the campus, not the major, at most programs, so read these as a guide to selectivity): lowest Philosophy 88% (172 applied); highest Biochemical And Biomolecular Engineering 99% (133 applied).

Aid pledge published by the college for 2026-27: families earning under $100,000 pay no tuition (CA residents; UC Blue and Gold, systemwide tuition only).

High schools that publish a numbered matriculation list and name University of California-Merced: 15, 31 enrolled students between them — ranked by graduates per class year, most often Harvard-Westlake School (2.0 per class year, 2 over 1 class year, BY THE CLASSES OF 2021-2025, counted column "CLASS OF '25"); Saint Joseph-Notre Dame High School (2.0 per class year, 2 over 1 class year, Class of 2026); Menlo School (1.7 per class year, 5 over 3 class years, Classes of 2023-2025). Each figure is the number that school printed divided by the class years its own list covers; the totals and years are shown. These are the schools that publish such a list, not every school that sends students; full list: https://highschoolreach.com/leaderboards/feeder-schools/university-of-california-merced.

High schools that publish a numbered list of college acceptances naming University of California-Merced: 4, 69 admissions between them — ranked by admissions per class year, most often Archbishop Mitty High School (35.0 per class year, 35 over 1 class year, Class of 2025); Lycée Français de San Francisco (10.3 per class year, 31 over 3 class years, Classes 2022, 2023, 2024); Staten Island Academy (2.0 per class year, 2 over 1 class year, College Acceptances 2026). Admits are counted at each college, so this counts admissions, not students. These are a different set of documents from the matriculation lists above and the two are never added together; full list: https://highschoolreach.com/leaderboards/feeder-schools/university-of-california-merced.

Machine-readable version of this page: https://highschoolreach.com/colleges/university-of-california-merced.json

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